Hard to imagine bitcoin going any lower? Bob Loukas sees it possible.
For Loukas, the next 4-year cycle would have to be very different from the previous ones.
In its short history, it has been customary to assess the price behavior of bitcoin (BTC) in 4-year cycles. Mainly, due to the halving, a process that occurs every 4 years through which the emission of BTC is reduced. But one analyst has a different approach to assessing the market ahead of the next bitcoin cycle. And it might not be what people expect.
The investor and market analyst, Bob Loukas proposes to see bitcoin in longer cycles. 16 years old, specifically. With this approach, it points to more mature market cycles and with less noise in the short term. If this modality is applied, it would make the current one its third cycle and the next one (from 2023) would be the beginning of the final part of a first stage of 16 years of BTC in the market.
Through a thread on Twitter, Loukas assured that the next 4-year cycle would probably come as a surprise to most. But not because of a stratospheric rise in price, as many in the bitcoiner community think. It would be, according to the also trader, a bearish cycle.
“It is the true 4-year bearish or declining cycle that gives the longer cycle (16 years in this case) the time to form its own bottom,” Loukas said. This would translate, then, into a drop to levels even lower than those seen recently around $17,000 and $18,000..
In theory, the 2026 bitcoin lows would actually form below where bitcoin has fallen in 2022! Yeah, hard to believe, right? I also couldn’t believe that the Nasdaq could drop 80% since 2000, and that stocks like Amazon and Apple could drop 90% and 85%.
Bob Loukas, Market Analyst
Bullish bias based on Bitcoin’s history and halving
The biggest surprise that the next 4-year bitcoin cycle would bring would not be the bearish effect itself. At least, for Loukas the big problem lies in the appreciation of macro analysts and the “bitcoin maxis”, those bitcoiners who defend the thesis that bitcoin will always be rising in price.
Both groups are “too conditioned to the behavior of previous cycles” and the influence of the halving, the periodic reduction in the issuance of coins in the Bitcoin network. Loukas dismisses this influence, as other analysts have been doing in recent times.
Historically, most analysts have pointed to the halving as one of the fundamental elements that has made bitcoin rise in price. This is because it represents a reduction shock to the supply of BTC entering the market. However, as the 21 million BTC limit approaches, many agree that this effect should be reduced. As of today, there are already more than 19.11 million BTC issued.
For a next 16-year cycle for bitcoin, from 2026 onwards, new highs for the price could be expected. In fact, Loukas points out that in each cycle the first periods are up and the last downhow he foresees it to be from 2023 to 2026. He himself recognizes, however, that he may be wrong and that only time and the behavior of market players have the last word.