Dollar, fixed term, shares and the 5 keys of the week

Facing a new week that begins, these are the key variables of the Argentine economy that must be taken into account

By christian a. butler

08/22/2022 – 06:58 a.m.

Since “Keys of the Week” We will try to bring them closer data to take into account in the week that begins, in a few lines and concretely the main variables that affect the investor. What he market watch and wait for the next 5 days.

1 dollar

  • BLUE $295 without variation
  • MEP $292.11 +4.23% weekly
  • CCL $299.57 +5.52% weekly

During the past week, the fragile calm in the exchange market with a strong rebound mainly in the CCL. The reason would be the exit of foreign investment funds that continue with bonds in pesos but also lack of specific definitions by the economy.

In the past week dollars began to enter the agro-export sector and the economy minister announced the arrival of new loans from international organizations for this week, something that will be well received by the market to reinforce reserves.

Dollars have room to go down but it always depends on the signals and measures carried out by the BCRA and EconomyWe must watch carefully if the bullish movement verified since Wednesday ends and we return to values ​​below $290 (most likely scenario) or else the rise accelerates and everyone returns to exceed $300.

2- Fees

  • Traditional fixed term 5.79% TEM
  • Fixed term UVA: 7.4% for the current month, 6% and 5.5% estimated for the following months
  • US 10-year rate 2.98% +14 bps

With no change in rates and with prices that continue to rise fixed installments UVA continue to project higher yields.

3- Actions

  • Merval 131,009.08 +3.99% weekly
  • Merval at u$s436.19 -1.14% weekly
  • The S&P 500 is at 4,228.48 -1.21% weekly

Local market: The positive trend continues measured in pesos, closing close to the maximum reached in the week (131,584 pts), YPF continued to be the stock with the best performance with an increase of 11.85%. Its performance in dollars presented a decline influenced not only by the exchange rate jump of the dollar but also by falls in Argentine papers listed in the USA.

American market: Last week we mentioned the possibility of taking profit and it came. After the rally experienced and a dollar that began to strengthen again with the Fed having to sustain the rate hike to control inflation, the decline may deepen.

4- Bonuses

  • dollar bonds they fall again losing part of the rebound achieved in recent days. The delay in key definitions in economic matters makes it impossible to take advantage of the impetus given by the international market.
  • Bonds in pesos at fixed rate with IRR between 86% and 92%, at a variable rate 78% and 87%, adjusted for zero inflation +3 points for those due in 2023 and inflation +10 points for those due beyond 2024, those adjusted by the dollar continue to trend saleswoman.
  • Very punished this week TO26 leaving the IRR at 92%, I could see some opportunity there.

5 – Goods

  • WTI u$s 93.80 -1.38% weekly
  • SOY u$s 547.93 -11.90% weekly
  • CORN u$s 246.84 -1.99% weekly
  • Wheat u$s 276.78 -6.54% weekly
  • GOLD u$s 1747.10 -2.99% weekly

From the hand of a dollar stronger always accompanies weaker commodities, this was verified last week and probably the one that has just started.

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