Free exchange rates seem to find no ceiling. While the tension in the foreign exchange market continues, as a result of the monetary issue, the rising inflation, the tightening of the exchange rate and the change of figures in politics, today the blue dollar broke a new barrier and set a record.
In the second round of the week, the parallel exchange rate was sold at $301, $10 more than yesterday (+3.4%). It was the highest nominal closing value on record. By way of comparison: on the last business day of June it closed at $239, which is why it has already accumulated an increase of $62 (+25.7%) since Martín Guzmán left the Palacio de Hacienda.
“Situations of uncertainty in Argentina always end up being verified in increases in the dollar and the current moment is no exception. On the one hand, we have a government that is clearly more responsive to Cristina [Kirchner] than Albert [Fernández]; and, on the other, the reserves are not enough. Now, while it is true that the changes being made by the Economy-Central Bank (BCRA) tandem in the interest rate and in the integration of reserve requirements facilitate, but do not ensure, covering the financing needs for the remainder of the year , there is another additional condiment that appears on the scene: the payment of imports at 180 days”considered Walter Morales, president of Wise Capital.
It should be remembered that during the first half of the year the free exchange rates were “asleep”. The only exception was at the end of January, when the market began to doubt whether the government would reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the blue reached $222.50, which at that time was a record. All doubts dispelled, the dollars fell, even below $190.
But in June, when the debt crisis broke out in pesos and the Central put into operation “the little machine” to make bills, the dollars resumed the upward trend. “This is all a product of the disarray generated by the Central Bank in June. We are still paying the costs, because they have not decided to take the bull by the horns and reverse the expansive policy they carried out by buying bonds, plus assistance to the Treasury and Leliq’s interest payments. Here the BCRA should demonstrate that it really wants to control the issue, with a strong monetary squeeze. He has to sell all those bonds he bought, absorb Leliq hard, and the dollar should calmly adjust $20-$30 below where it is now”, considered financial analyst Christian Buteler.
If June gave the dollars a boost, July made them jump. Between the departure of Guzmán from the Ministry of Economy and the entry into the scene of Silvina Batakis, plus the issuance of pesos, the highest inflation since 1990 and more exchange rate traps -on imports and the tourist dollar-, not only the blue skyrocketed : So far this month, the MEP has accumulated a rise of $49.50 (+19.8%) and the cash with settlement (CCL) of $50 (+20.2%).
This morning, with the Cable dollar becoming more comfortable above $300, different market sources confirmed to THE NATION that returned the calls to the tables. They called everyone so that type C bonds are not operated by screens, which, by the difference, is the one that the CCL puts together for you. But it can be done through the bilateral negotiation segment (Senebi), which is behind the screen”, they explained from a stock exchange company that asked not to be mentioned. Along the same lines, other alycs were also expressed.
That explains why the counted with liquidation it closed neutral, although during the day there were times when it reached $307. This price, which is usually positioned higher because it allows the dollars to be deposited in a bank account outside of Argentina and legally, ended the stable day in the $303.80.
The MEP dollar or “Bolsa”, which is used to buy greenbacks legally through the purchase and sale of bonds and without exchange traps, appeared on screens $297.14. It was a daily increase of $2 (+0.7%), and touched a new record value.
Looking ahead to the days ahead, could free dollars continue to climb even higher? For the financial analyst Salvador di Stefano, for the moment, not much more. Although the dollar reached a position above $300It’s not trading smoothly and at some point “you’re going to have to take profit.” Of course: with inflation running at 90% per year, it could reach $400 by the end of the year.
At the other end of the foreign exchange market, the official wholesale dollar was sold at $129.14 (+0.2%). This price is moving slowly, due to the restrictions and controls that the Central Bank maintains in force. that explains why the gap with blue was 133% and, compared to the CCL, 134.7%.
At the windows of Banco Nación, the official retail exchange rate remained firm at $135. If a 30% PAIS tax is added to said value and another 35% on the Profit account, the result is the dollar savings at $222.75. On the other hand, with 30% of PAIS tax and 45% of Earnings, the price of the “tourist” dollar to $236.25.
After yesterday afternoon the Argentine risk exceeded the barrier of 2800 points, a value that had not been observed since May 2020, today the index prepared by the JP Morgan fell 18 units and stood at 2792 basis points (-0.6%).
Still, since July began the country risk accumulates an advance of 414 units (+17.6%). This is explained not only by local noise, but also by fears of global stagflation and the expectation that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will further tighten monetary policy.
In that context, the bonds of the last debt swap have been touching post-swap minimums. However, this Tuesday the sovereign titles rebounded: abroad they rose up to 3.5% (GD35D) and, at the local level, 4.6% (GD46).
On the other hand, the S&P Merval traded at 107,185 units, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous close. On Wall Street, most of the Argentine stock prices showed positive variations: Ternium papers rose 5.7%, followed by Cresud (+5.3%) and Mercado Libre (+4.9%).