The free dollar advanced nine pesos this Tuesday, to $291 for sale, to cut a series of three days low. The “blue” was traded at $281 in the morning, but the rebound in stock prices, with a “cash with liquidation” that also touched $291, reversed the trend in the parallel market after noon. At the close, the “counted with liqui” settled at 287.73 pesos.
The wholesale dollar rose to $132.20, with a 120.1% gap relative to the free dollar.
The free dollar touched an intraday record of $350 on July 22
Amilcar Collanteeconomist from the Center for Economic Studies of the South (CeSur) affirmed that “you see a strong gap compressionwithout many fundamentals that have changed in Argentina, this is more than anything expectation. what yes, the rate moved sharply of interest and that has an effect on the alternative dollars. And more than anything, it is an expectation for the future that wants to avoid crisis scenarios. To validate a gap, with a dollar of 330 or 340 pesos, the one who bought at those levels was observing a scenario with a gap that shot up even more and could go to a hyper scenario, with a higher nominal value with much higher inflation. high and perhaps an expectation of very important or almost imminent devaluation”
“Perhaps the arrival of Massa on the political side gives some margin in that, but this if the course is not changed, and that is manifested through concrete measures, with the reduction of the deficit, reduction of emissions and others, or it has short legs. In itself, I think there is a mini ‘honeymoon’ for the new ‘super’ Ministry of Economy to accommodate. And the interest rate affects in this context”, evaluated Collante.
“Beyond the pressures for a discreet jump, the authorities would seem even more inclined to combine an acceleration in the drag pin and generate an improvement in expectations as a strategy to reduce the still high ‘gap’, since it is urgent to stop the vicious circle that feeds back”, said the economist Gustavo Ber.
“Accompanying the positive trend of bonds and shares, and with the crucial contribution represented by the strong rise in interest rates, is that the financial dollars extend the important contraction of the last wheels due to the better local expectations and the greater appetite for global risk, attentive to the economic measures in search of evaluating if they will be enough to generate a stabilization stage that thus opens space to improve the confidence of investors”, added the head of the Ber Study.
The Central Bank had to carry out this Tuesday another strong sale for more than USD 170 million in the wholesale wheel. So far in 2022, it has accumulated net purchases in the wholesale market for just USD 316 million, an amount that represents the 4.5% of the net balance in favor obtained in the same period of last year, which accumulated some USD 7,091 million as of August 2, 2021.
International reserves fell USD 202 million on Monday and ended at 38,038 million dollars
According to CIARA (Chamber of the Oil Industry of the Argentine Republic) and CEC (Cereal Export Center), the liquidation of foreign exchange by the agro-export sector registered a drop in July of 17.1% monthly and 10.1% year-on-year , standing at 3,164 million dollars.
The amount settled since January 2, 2022 amounts to USD 22,309 million, to register a growth of 10% in relation to the same period of the previous year and is the historical record since records exist. The export of grains has been affected by the negative climatic effects on the thick harvest, as well as the roadblocks and self-convened carriers that prevented the entry of thousands of trucks to the ports.
“The rise in interest rates in Argentina that the BCRA carried out last week put an anchor on exchange pressures, which gave more predictability and caused the prices of Argentine assets, both bonds and shares, to recompose,” they evaluated. the analysts of Adcap Financial Group.