Fixed term UVA and the 5 easy investments chosen by experts

The rising data on inflation, the rise in interest rates and the transitory stability in the dollar prices of the free market force us to reconfigure the entire investment scenario. For this reason, savers are moving towards the alternatives that they contemplate covering themselves in this new context, where the uncertainty that there may be a new jump in the exchange rate has not dissipated.

Based on this approach, iProfesional consulted Roberto Geretto, economist and portfolio manager of Fundcorp, to know what they are the 5 saving alternatives that he recommends to earn money in this uncertain economic and political scenario.

Among the options selected by this expert, placements in pesos that yield like inflation or based on the high interest rate, dollar bills, instruments that adjust based on the movement of the official exchange rate and foreign shares that can be acquired stand out. in local currency (Cedears).

UVA Fixed Term

The first choice of this analyst focuses on the fixed term UVA, which is the one that pays a return based on the increase in prices in the economy (IPC), and whose period mandatory minimum stay is 90 days. It is that although there is the possibility of early “exit”, after being the money one month embedded as a floor, the income received in that case is lower than that of the traditional fixed term.

“The performance offered by the UVA placement is that of inflation plus 1% as a premium, income that protects the investor’s capital from rising pricesand at the same time that it is suitable for a short-term horizon. This is due to the fact that you have the option of prepaying this deposit after 30 days, although in this case you would not receive the inflation return, but rather the prepayment rate,” which is 65.5% per year, Geretto details.

In summary, if you stay between 30 and 89 days, you will earn less than 69.5% per annum offered by the traditional fixed term.

With the strong rise in inflation, the UVA fixed term becomes a good investment alternative.

“However, the Inflation-adjusted time deposits are not risk-free. The first is from an INDEC intervention where the CPI is manipulated, so that there the inflation that pays the fixed term would be altered. But, the fact that there is the possibility of paying in advance and obtaining a fixed rate mitigates this risk”, reflects this economist.

On the other hand, he maintains that a risk is that the Government is financed through the banking system in a “disproportionate manner, since there would be a mismatch of terms.”

In summary, to obtain the yield of the fixed term adjusted for inflation, you must wait a minimum of 90 days, so in this case it is not a highly liquid instrument.

dollar banknote

The dollar bill is an interesting saving alternativetaking into account the price delay that it has in the official segment, although the exchange rate only allows buying up to US$200 per month, for those people who can justify their income or who have not requested any type of state aid.

The other alternative is the free segment, through buy MEP dollar on the Stock Exchange or tickets in the informal square.

“A value of $290 in the free dollar is expensive in historical terms, surpassing, for example, that of the exit from convertibility. However, it continues to constitute a refuge of value for savings, where the greater restrictions on imports can cause another boost to financial dollars, the blue being not alien to the context,” Geretto details.

The dollar bill is another of the recommended alternatives, given an increase in its price in the coming months.

The dollar bill is another of the recommended alternatives, given a possible increase in its price in the coming months

And he adds that, if the “Massa plan” does not work, “probably the tensions in the foreign exchange market, where the Central Bank has many difficulties to accumulate reserves”.

Cedars ETF

For those savers who can tolerate the risk, Cedars ETFwhich are Argentine deposit certificates that replicate in pesos the prices of the indices of certain sectors that are listed in dollars on Wall Street, are a possible option.

They have been showing great volume and good liquidity. Thus, the advantages of a Cedears ETF are that you access a diversified index from abroad, so the risk of local operations is eliminated. Also, since the underlying asset is an index quoted in dollars, there is protection against the exchange rate,” Geretto points out.

In turn, he states that This stock market instrument allows savers to diversify their portfolio. Therefore, “they are a good vehicle to reduce exchange rate risk, local market risk, and gain access to firms listed on foreign markets.”

Among the disadvantages of Cedears ETFs, it is worth noting that is being dollarized at the spot price with liquidationwhich is not a low exchange rate quote, like the value of the official dollar. In addition, foreign indices may suffer declines in a context in which the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) is raising rates.

“However, if the investment horizon is medium or long, These are risks that fade over time.. To this we must add that the US stock indices have already been adjusting their prices throughout the year,” concludes Geretto.

The common investment funds (FCI) with negotiable obligations that follow the price of the dollar are among those recommended.

The common investment funds (FCI) with negotiable obligations that follow the price of the dollar are among those recommended.

Common investment fund ON dollar linked

The mutual funds (FCI) that invest in negotiable obligations (ON) dollar linked They are another classic option to invest pesos for those who want to dollarize their portfolios.

“The The main risk that these FCIs have is that the Government delays the dollar, which is very usual as a tool so that inflation does not increase more. In any case, the Executive will not be able to delay the exchange rate much given the agreement with the IMF, which also has the goal of accumulating reserves,” Geretto clarifies.

When choosing a fund ON dollar pegged, This analyst emphasizes that it is important to see the concentration of public securities presented against the obligations of companies that are presented in the portfolio, in order to have adequate diversification.

“Especially, the ideal is to have the largest participation of ON, so that it is not so exposed to the risk of the Treasury”Geretto recommends.

Traditional Fixed Term

After the last rise in interest rates by the Central Bank to 69.5% TNA, the traditional fixed terms gained some appeal.

“The effective annual rate (TEA) offered of 96.58% is in line with the expected inflation for the coming months. Specifically, if monthly inflation is around 5.6% to 5.7%, a traditional fixed term would be giving the same return as one adjusted for UVA. The great disadvantage is that inflationary surprises can occur, given the unstable context,” Geretto concludes.

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