From LCG they pointed out that in the third week it stood out “a decrease in the percentage of products with increases within the basket, standing at 21% (compared to 31% the previous week)”. “The average ratio of the last four weeks is 25%, which means that all the products in the basket would register a price increase in a month,” the firm added. The “dairy products and eggs” led the rises last week, registering an increase of 5.8%; followed by “ready-to-go meals” (3.5%) and vegetables, 2%.
For its part, the IPC GBA measured by Ecolatina registered a growth of 6.3% in the first fortnight of August compared to the same period in July. “Within the Food and beverages chapter, the increases were generalized and the indicator grew above the general level (+7.2%), being the chapter with the highest incidence in the general result (explaining 58% of the total variation in the period)”, they remarked from the firm. “Inside, the variations in Vegetables (+17.7%), Sugar, Honey, Sweets and cocoa (+13.7%), Noodles (+10.4%), Infusions (+7.5%) stood out. and Dairy products and eggs (+7.3%)”, it was added.
Meanwhile, the Eco Go Retail Price Survey showed a variation of 1.5% in the second week of the month, accelerating 0.4 pp “With this data and considering a weekly variation projection of 1.4% for the next two weeks of the month, the inflation of food consumed at home in August would rise to 5.9% per month”, they projected from the firm.
When analyzing the factors that can explain the increases in the food sector, the director of the consulting firm Focus Market, Damián Di Pace, explained: “There are many reasons for inflation to continue to be at high levels in the category”.
“There are many supplies and raw materials that the industry is still unable to obtain. In turn, the monetary issue of June and July continues to act as a lag on the price variation of that category in general,” the analyst told Ámbito. “In addition, there is a situation in which many who maintain their stock level are seeing that consumption is fallingbut despite this, prices continue to rise, because replacement values are being updated every 15 days”, he added.
Beyond what has happened so far, more pressures will add fuel to the fire of food prices going forward. “The increase in rates is added, which in the case of food, in the primary sector, between now and March 2023, SMEs will have an increase of 226% in rates. It will also have this increase in the industrial and commercial sectors. That is to say, there is a very strong accumulated increase in the sector, from the origin and to the shelf, which means that the correction of these relative prices in terms of public service rates means that inflation has little room to fall ” , he underlined.
Gasoline rise adds more pressure to the IPC
Beyond the foodsAnother factor that will add pressure to general inflation, both in August and for the coming months, is the update in the price of fuels. Is that from this Sunday at midnight YPF announced an average increase of 7.5%which according to the company responds to the evolution of the variables in the formation of prices.
YPF’s announcement specifies that the new values in gasoline and diesel will have an average increase of 7.5%which involves 8.5% for gasoline and 6% for diesel. A) Yes, In the last 12 months, gasoline has accumulated an increase of 32% and diesel of 51% (41.7% on average between both fuels), well below the annual inflation of 71% until July 2021.
“The rise in gasoline has a direct impact on inflation, it hits all the links in the food value chain and other types of goods”Di Pace noted.
It is in this scenario that general inflation in August will once again be above 6%, a figure that, although it will represent a slowdown compared to 7.4% in July, will continue to be high.