So far this year, the stock of private deposits in dollars (Argendollars) has fallen by nearly $1.1 billion. But 80% of that loss corresponds to last month. No doubt since the untimely departure of Martin Guzman the prevailing climate became even more rarefied. After the assumption of Silvina Batakisfrom this column, it was warned about the monitoring of this variable. Why? Because the Argendollars they are a good thermometer that also reflect several key mirrors.
Let us first recall what we mean by Argendollars. They are the placements of families and companies of Dollars banknotes in sight accounts, in savings accounts, and/or in fixed terms. It is then the deposits in Dollars from the private sector. Today, according to the latest official data as of July 28, the stock of Argendollars stands at US$14,671 million. This is the lowest level since November 27, 2020.
Why pay so much attention to Argendollars? In the first place, it is a thermometer of the behavior of this saver and investor profile, which is characterized by being small/medium and in general very sensitive to market mood swings. In addition, this fauna usually uses this investment alternative as a substitute for a safe deposit box, free of charge. Of course, in return, the financial return obtained is irrelevant.
Second, it is the raw material that banks have to grant loans in dollars in the local market. It is worth noting that many companies without access to international financing have in this channel almost the only option to finance their foreign trade operations. The credits in Dollars they were more than US$16 billion years ago. Today they do not reach US$3.9 billion. And last but not least, the Argendollars nourish the international reserves of the BCRA. They do it through bank reserves, that is, the portion of those deposits that banks cannot lend but keep as a reserve. those lace on Dollars they are computed within the stock of gross reserves of the BCRA. Therefore, when the Argendollarsreserves rise and vice versa.
The current panorama shows that after a long period of stability, or rather, of stagnation, the Argendollars they began to fall from the end of 2021. But they hovered around the average US$15.5 billion. However, since the political noises intensified the decibels the drainage of the Argendollars it accelerated.
Actually, since the end of June the first signs have already begun. The exit of the Argendollars it went from an average daily rate of US$6.4 million to more than US$10.4 million. Then about US$30 to US$50 million per week came out. But already in July the flight more than doubled. In the first week of last month, amid the resignation of Guzmannearly US$200 million left. At an average rate of US$40 million per day. A week later, with batakis in the Palacio de Hacienda it fell by half, about US$102 million (US$20 million a day on average) but then quickly, when the entire exchange and financial spectrum escalated to disturbing levels, the outflow of Argendollars it climbed to almost US$300 million (US$59.2 million daily average), and in the last week of July, even though the last few days remain to be computed, another US$147 million left (almost US$30 million daily). Just for statistics and history, the worst days were on the 21st and 22nd when US$128 and US$115 million were lost, respectively. In those days the dollar casual marked record prices.
In other words, in total throughout July US$874 million were lost, and the stock fell to less than US$15,000 million. So the spirits of the holders of Argendollars They have been overly sensitized. If the drainage continues in a few weeks, not only will the treasuries of the entities have to deal with more money outflows, but the reserves will also suffer. In this regard, it is worth noting that there are no liquidity or solvency problems, because the banks have a significant portion of reserves to face withdrawals and, in addition, the credits are matched with borrowers who export or are directly related to foreign currency income. That is why it is important that the new economic team bring some calm, among other things, to the spirits of savers.