The BCRA bought only USD 18 million in the week and reserves are the lowest in six years

The economy loses foreign currency despite record agricultural exports.

During the week, the Central Bank maintained a positive balance due to its foreign exchange intervention with a very meager result: bought just $18 million on four wheelsbecause this Friday there were no operations due to the national holiday. In a week that closed earlier than expected, gross international reserves were at the lowest amount since October 14, 2016

To see the glass “half full” it should be noted that the monetary entity completed a series of 16 operating rounds with a positive balance. Since last August 10, net purchases have been recorded for a total of about $326 million.

But in that same periodgross international reserves fell $438 millionto USD 36,641 million, the lowest amount since October 14, 2016. Debt payments, energy imports and the fall in the price of assets that make up reserves continued to hit the coffers of the Central.

The monetary entity faces a 2022 with net purchases for $42 millionAlthough this amount represents only the 0.6% of the net balance in favor in the same period of last year, of about USD 6,911 million as of September 2, 2021.

The third quarter is once again challenging for reservations. Although the demand for foreign currency due to the energy deficit should be reduced after the winter, seasonality also works against income from agricultural exports, the mainstay of Argentine foreign trade.

The relevant question is how the film continues from now on. From a ‘sectoral’ approach of the MULC, the seasonal drop in agriculture would be felt more than that of energy -which seems to have advanced its fall-, with an estimated balance that would be reduced from USD 2,629 million to USD 2,143 million”, estimated the experts from Portfolio Personal Inversiones.

“Nevertheless, the biggest challenge will be how you will deal with the rest of the demandwhich is mainly explained by imports. The ‘stepping’ imports is not innocuous neither for economic activity nor for the price level. The economy has already shown signs of exhaustion, with private surveys that show monthly falls of 0.9% in Industry and 0.3% in general economic activity”, they limited from Portfolio Personal.

The Secretary of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries of the Nation, John Joseph Bahillostated before the Senate that the government “is working and analyzing” a proposal that encourages the liquidation of soy by producers, while dismissing the possibility of establishing a “zero withholding” scheme for agricultural exports in the short term.

In recent days, versions have circulated in the agro-industrial sector about the possibility that the government decides to apply a new temporary scheme in which the exchange rate for the settlement of soy becomes $200 per dollar, only during September. In this regard, from the Chamber of the Oil Industry and the Cereal Exporters Center (CIARA-CEC), they assured that they had no news about this possibility.

In the fourth quarter, the demand for foreign currency to import energy is reduced, but so are the settlements of agriculture

In this sense, the liquidation of foreign currency from the export of grains and derivatives continues to break records and closed its best August of the last 20 years. As reported by CIARA-CEC, the eighth month of the year ended with the income of USD 3,387.9 million, which meant an increase of 5% compared to July, and 11% above August 2021.

In this way, the agro-export sector consolidated its foreign currency settlement record with an amount deposited since January 2, amounting to USD 25,696.9 million, about USD 2,467 million or a 10% above January-August last year.

The expected income this year from exports of the oilseed and grain complexes could exceed USD 40.5 billionconstituting “a historical landmark for Argentine foreign trade”, highlighted this Monday the Rosario Stock ExchangeThe entity stressed that this level would be reached by “the quantities exported” rather than by the rise in prices registered this year as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which raised the international values ​​of the raw Materials usually.

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