The Central bank ended its participation in the foreign exchange market this Friday with sales of USD 95 millionto total in the first days of August about USD 700 million of net sales in the market.
The monetary entity had to make sales in the cash segment (spot) for the eighth consecutive session, despite the important volume operated in the order of USD 470.8 million on the day.
On the last eight wheels, the BCRA accumulated net sales of USD 1,055 millionin the longest negative streak in two years, when over 17 business rounds the Central shed USD 1,551 million between August 19 and September 11, 2020. A few days later, on September 16, 2020 , began the application of a 35% surcharge as an advance payment for the Income Tax for retail demand, a complement of 30% for the Tax for an Inclusive and Solidary Argentina (PAIS) in force since December 26, 2019.
At the beginning of August, the BCRA accumulated sales in the interbank market for some USD 700 million dollars. Also went negative for his intervention in 2022with net sales in the wholesale market for USD 79 millionwhen it had obtained a net balance in favor in the same period last year of about USD 7,283 million as of August 5, 2021.
“If you look at the foreign exchange market since December 10, 2019, the BCRA maintains a buying position for about USD 2,000 million. For this same date in 2020, the first week of August, the BCRA had sold USD 2,600 million compared to December 10 of the previous year,” market sources specified. “It is not a linear account, but if the first week of August 2022 is compared to the BCRA’s foreign exchange market position in the first week of 2020, today it is more than USD 4.5 billion higher,” they added.
“The market is waiting for details, concrete measures to be able to correct the fiscal situation and for this to lead to less monetary issuance and less pressure on the exchange rate gap, which is what ends up hindering the accumulation of Central Bank reserves, in a context where there is no international financing and therefore it depends on the flow of foreign currency settlement”, explained Federico FuriaseDirector of Anker Latin America.
“In the balance sheet of the Central Bank, net reserves fell from USD 12,000 million in December 2019 to the area of 2,500 to 3,000 million dollars. And in parallel, with this deterioration of the main asset of the Central Bank that we had in the ‘film’ from December 2019 to the present, the liabilities of the Central Bank grew. The Monetary Base grew below inflation, but above all the remunerated liabilities of the Central Bank grew. The Liquidity bills (Leliq) multiplied almost sevenfold and went from the area of one billion pesos to $8 billion counting passive Repos”, Furiase specified, in a talk convened by the IEB Group (Invest in the Stock Market).
“And there is the great monetary imbalance, that is to say, we have almost two monetary bases in what are the remunerated liabilities of the Central Bank in the short term, and that reflects the main damage, more than the economic one, reflected in the exchange rate monetary front, and what explains this 100% exchange rate gap, which is the main obstacle for the Central Bank to accumulate reserves, which is what we need to contain expectations of devaluation and inflation”, concluded Furiase.
Gross reserves fell on Thursday to USD 37,332 million, the lowest amount since last March 23
The analysts of Personal Portfolio Investments They indicated that “novelties are expected on new exchange rates that encourage the liquidation of exporters. The “soybean” dollar launched last week had the opposite effect than expected: not only did it bring a very marginal improvement in the effective exchange rate for producers (+15%), but it was not yet implemented, so the liquidation slowed down ”.
“According to reports, the ‘soy’ dollar would become an ‘agro’ dollar -all crops would be included-, the term would be extended until the end of the year -it was until August 31- and the effective exchange rate would be improved” , they added from Personal Portfolio.