The gap between the official dollar and alternative quotes fell below 100% for the first time in two months

The BCRA bets on a large accumulation of foreign currency with the “soybean dollar”.

With a holiday in the US that reduced operations and a local system that is adjusting to the new regulations of the “Soy dollar”, the financial market moved by force of expectations and the greenback was operated with a significant drop in prices in the alternative markets to the “stocks”.

Thus, prices hit a flat not seen in almost two monthswhile the exchange rate gap fell below 100% for the first time since July 4.

The foreign exchange market is preparing for a strong flow of dollars until the end of the month with the debut of the “soybean dollar”

The free dollar plummeted about 15 pesos or 5.3% for sale, to 270 pesosits lowest price since last July 11.

in the segment wholesalerthe dollar ended up offered to $140.28with an increase of 1.25 pesos or 0.9% above from last Thursday’s close, a broad rate if it is taken into account that on Mondays -after the weekend break- the official exchange rate had been rising at a rate of 0.5% or 0.6% on the day.

“Although today’s adjustment compensates, as in every beginning of the week, the inactivity due to the holiday on Friday and the weekend, it marks a record in three years. It is the highest rise for a start of the week since August 30, 2019 “, he specified Gustavo Quintanaagent of PR Corredores de Cambio.

In this way, the The exchange rate gap between the wholesale dollar and the alternative prices settled below 100% for the first time in the last two months. In the case of the free dollar, it fell by about 85%a level that it had not reached since July 4, when the exchange market was shaken by the resignation of Martín Guzmán from the Ministry of Economy.

The narrowing of the gap was also evident in the stock market dollars, the “cash with liquidation” and the MEP or Stock Exchange dollar. In both cases, the margin of difference with the official price was below 100%, which implies a narrowing of the gap of more than 30 percent with respect to the values ​​registered during the exchange turbulence of the beginning of July.

“The BCRA assisted today with USD 9 million the needs of the market, where the Friday Demand Accumulation holiday with the day, while there were no operations related to the liquidation of the soybean complex”, a market source told Infobae. “Probably the banks and CIARA are adjusting the systems and that made the supply of soybeans run”, he added.

“Today’s holiday in the United States restricts operations in the local market to those to be settled starting tomorrow and to those that financial entities carry out against their own accounts in dollars at the BCRA,” Quintana said.

The fall of the “blue” also extended to the dollars operated through stock assets, which subtracted about six pesos. The MEP dollar fell to $274.89 and the “cash with liquidation” decreased to $282.91minimums since last July 6, two months ago.

The wholesale dollar gained 1.25 pesos or 0.9%, to $140.28, the largest daily rise in three years

The Minister of Economy, Serge Massaannounced a regime for more to enter dollars from the soybean complex with a currency value of 200 pesos which will run until the end of the month. This is a voluntary membership program that represents an improvement over last Friday’s prices. Massa reached an agreement with the agro-exporters by which they will enter some 5,000 million dollars in the current month.

The cost is that Central Bank will give more pesos to agriculture and must reabsorb them through a public title for which you will pay an interest rate. The purchase of dollars is plain and simple issuance. But the urgent thing was to get hold of dollars, although the cost is high. This is not a devaluation, it is a temporary improvement of the exchange rate of 35% for an agricultural sector, equivalent to a temporary removal of retentions.

The landing of the “soybean” dollar had its effect on the futures market Matba-Rofex. The contracts of dollar futures for the end of September ended at $148.42with a drop of 0.9%, while for December 2022 they closed at $190.80 (-0.9%). Meanwhile, the soybean contracts for delivery in September sank 5.6%, to 360 dollars.

Carlos Fernandez Berisohead trader of the IEB Group (Invest in the Stock Market), affirmed that “this new soybean dollar allows exporters to settle at an official dollar of $200, against the previous one of $139. Ultimately, it is as if the exporters could sell without the withholdings that they ended up applying after the $139 cash. Based on this, various questions arise. Mainly with the Rofex futures, which today are down an average of 1.5 pesos by contract, since it is estimated that the government will have more income in dollars at the cost of some emissions, but the incentives for the export sector are going to generate Central may have purchases in the MULC at least by Septemberwhich is the time that this measure will be in principle. Then we will see if it can be stretched to continue accumulating reserves”.

Businesses showed liquidity cuts due to the partial holiday in the United States given the commemoration of “Labor Day”

“To the futures will have a negative impact, since it is like a principle of unfoldingbecause there are different multiple types of exchange and the ROFEX futures contracts will still be fixed according to Communication 3500 (from the BCRA of the wholesale dollar), which is the price at which importers and the rest of the sectors have access. In this sense, the Government marked in the decree that the products that directly impact the family basket and inflation will not be reached by this measure, with which for now the 3500 continues to be the one that governs futures and loses strength, “he said. Fernandez Beriso.

The group of creditors Holders of Argentine Exchange Bonds commented that “the device of the ‘soy dollar’ to anticipate exports is only short term. They are admitting that the official dollar is a fantasy and it is probably the first step in a covert devaluation. Until Argentina devalues ​​and unifies the exchange rate, everyone is going to demand special treatment”.

The local stock market sought to level positions against a rise in ADRs on Wall Street recorded at the close of last week, and with a liquidity cut due to the partial inactivity in the United States given the recess in financial activity due to the celebration of “Labor Day”.

The stock index S&P Merval of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange rose 1.4% to 138,268 pointsstill far from the intraday historical maximum in pesos of 145,859 units reached a week ago.

Among the leading stocks, the 7.8% rise for Cresud stood out, followed by Transportadora Gas del Sur (+6.3%), while the titles of YPF rose 4.5%at 1,715 pesos.

Among the bonds traded in ByMA (Argentine Stock Exchanges and Markets), issues in dollars exhibited significant gains in a range of 2% to 5%. The Global 2030 (GD30D) rose 4.6%followed by the Bonar 2029 (AL29D), which step 3.9%and the Bonar 2030 (AL30D) which rose 3.7 percent.

The risk country JP Morgan, which measures the rate gap between US Treasury bonds and their emerging peers, is based on the 2,329 points basics for Argentina.


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