warn that it will have an impact on activity and project a cooling

Lorenzo Sigaut Gravinadirector of macroeconomic analysis of balance, He pointed out: “It will have an impact and it will be about the second half of the year. Activity data for July would show lower year-on-year growth and a seasonally adjusted drop, and we expect something similar to happen in August, because the import closure at the end of June affected the payment of imports, but not their arrival.” Along these lines, he added that another additional point as to why the second semester started off on the wrong foot in terms of activity was the inflation figure of 7.4% for July. “It is difficult for wages to have followed inflation, so we will notice a greater loss of purchasing power that will be affected by family consumption,” he stated.

Alejandro Giacoia, economist of economic opinions, he underlined that “starting from the basis that imports are necessary for the economy to work, as long as the problem of reserves is sought to be solved with more controls, it will have some impact on activity”. In this sense, he warned: “It is true that limiting the entry of inputs can hit much harder than other products. However, cutting off the entry of consumer goods, which is where the focus will be now, can generate shortages and increase prices, which is also recessive.”

For its part, Agostina Myronec, economist of ecolatin, He pointed out that the consultant estimates a seasonally adjusted fall in July as a consequence of the restrictions on imports and the exchange rate uncertainty that has occurred since the middle of the month.

“We estimate that the restrictions will mainly affect the goods-producing sectors, mainly the manufacturing industry, above the service sectors. Something similar happened in October 2021, when the restrictions impacted certain industrial branches: the IPI fell 5.9% seasonally adjusted in that month and the EMAE contracted 0.7%,” Myronec said.

Growth 2022

Claudio Caprarulo, consultant director Analytics, indicated that its growth projection remains at 4.2% for 2022, with “a stagnation in the level of activity for this second half of the year.” “That includes the impacts of a deepening of the exchange rate trap. It is clear that increasing restrictions on imports threatens the level of activity, puts pressure on parallel dollars and, consequently, on inflation. However, the currency crisis is still in force and is a less contractionary measure than a strong devaluation. Above all, if the restrictions fall on luxury goods and not on inputs”, he maintained.

While, mironec projected “a seasonally adjusted drop in the third quarter in conjunction with a stagnation in the fourth, which would result in economic growth slightly below 4%”. For its part, Giacoia He pointed out that from Econviews they project that the activity could grow around 3.5% this year, however, he remarked that “it is all thanks to the statistical drag left by last year.” “End to end the GDP would show a slight drop”, he estimated. Sigaut Gravina, for his part, predicted that, “after a very good first semester”, with an expansion of 6.3% year-on-year, the average growth for 2022 will be between 2.5% and 3.5%. “We project it below 3%,” he concluded.

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