With the blue dollar touching $300, where to invest the pesos?

After the resignation of the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, the Dolar blue reached values ​​in which it was believed that the situation was going to decompress and today the Argentines do not know whether to renew the fixed terms or validate the exchange rate.

In the program What do we do with the Weights? (A24), the specialist Luchas Yatche, Head of Strategy at Liebre Capital, recommends good diversification within portfolios with corporate risk and partially reduce sovereign risk.

“Today it is very important for dollars to position themselves in assets such as Negotiable Obligations (ONs) in dollars, which offer returns above North American inflation (9.1% year-on-year),” he says.

“To enter -he explains- you have to convert the pesos to dollars and validate this exchange rate or enter with previously purchased dollars. You can add participation in assets such as Genneia, Cresud, Pampa Energía and others, which are good credits with a good track record .”

Given the rise in the blue dollar, where to invest

“For the pesos, perhaps a smaller participation within the portfolio positioning itself in assets with inflation-linked hedges such as CER assets, but always in the short part of the curve; reduce duration and have greater liquidity. All short for the pesos. And dollar-linked assets for which there are many corporate options, also with ONs, assuming the current gap and the official exchange rate that is very late in real terms,” ​​he concludes.

Given the rise in the blue dollar, today it is key to know where to invest the pesos

For the analyst Daniel Vicien, the alternatives depend on the profile. “The truth is that the most conservative will be much more dollarized, but it is true that you can enter any bill with a CER adjustment to August, September or October and it will keep pace with inflation. The conservative investor will be able to dollarize by MEP or directly by entering an ON – New York Law – with pesos, which, although there is not so much liquidity, can be achieved.

“Also –complete- you can enter some ONs fund in pesos, You can also take a little more risk in the American market. The results will be published for the second quarter with a drop in GDP, but then it will start to turn around. It is what began to be seen during the last week”

As he explains, you can enter through CEDAR. “The conservatives can take the CEDEAR of the big three. The CEDEAR contains the CCL. As long as it continues to grow, it will continue to rise even if the stock does not. So, you can be dollarized but in pesos. For those who prefer to invest a little more in rates, there is the CER option. In no way a fixed term with UVA adjustment, the banks do not want it because they cannot lend it. In addition, you immobilize yourself in a context that changes very quickly, “he details.

New tourist dollar, “gifted”

For his part, Mariano Gorodisch, an economic analyst and journalist, indicated that it is more practical when he points to the tourist dollar. “It is an opportunity because the 45% withholding -not tax- is recovered in April of next year. That is, buys a dollar for $170, it is the opportunity to plan next year’s summer vacation. And even if she doesn’t recover, a dollar of $230 is given away“, he emphasizes.

“Whoever has pesos should invest it in vacations abroad because they are subsidizing going to Qatar. Many people returned to Uruguay to change tires because they are available and they are much cheaper, so you can have a free weekend. The curious thing is that they have not put a limit on the card dollar, because that is how they are subsidizing those who have the most. The Government does not have dollars for production, but it does have the richest to spend $170. That is the complaint of the productive sector towards the BCRA. With the new surcharge of 45% the next day it increased to the financial dollar“, he argument.

Analysts assure that the tourist dollar is “given away”

The option of building a portfolio with foreign assets

Specialists reveal their preferences in assets internationally. In this sense, Yatche, from Liebre Capital, prefers “to be diversified in ETFs, through the CEDEARS we have different options. I bet on three specific assets. SPY, which is the replica of the S&P 500, the NASDAQ (QQQ) and a stake smallest in the XLF, which replicates the US financial sector.”

For his part, the analyst Daniel Vicien turns to the long-term total quality assets. “Citi and Bank of America come in handy. You can add Google, Microsoft and Apple.”

With his usual practical eye, Gorodisch advises more direct investment. “The best investment is thisckearse in coffee because there is a shortage. The same goes for oil. It can take advantage of Now 12although they raised the rate to 42%. The financial cost is already on par with inflation. You have to see that when they say it’s a fixed fee, it also has interest.”

Expectations about the financial dollar

For Mariano Otálora, host of What do we do with the pesos? (A24) and director of the Argentine School of Personal Finances (EAP), “the financial dollaris the one that is putting pressure on all the economic variables until an area close to the $300; meIt is preferable this value to have this madness of the seesaw“. What worries is not so much the value, but speed with which he went up because that’s what scares and that’s what you have to calm down.

And Gorodisch emphasizes that the financial dollar never moved as much as in recent days.

“In the last five rounds, the devaluation accelerated at a rate of 80% per year, moving more than US$200 million between the MEP and the CCL. In other words, many companies see the price of $300 cheap to dollarize their portfolio.”

The escalation of the dollar forces Argentines to cover themselves and invest the pesos

Under the inflation that is coming, from between a 7% and 8% for July, and bearing in mind that the dollar always accompanies inflation, “for them the dollar is cheap more than anything with the signal from the BCRA that it is not going to raise the interest rate because if the fixed-term rate rises, then the Treasury has to upload much more by the end of the month.On Batakis, for the first time, they began to act in coordination; there is team. Before, Guzmán used to cut himselfGorodish concludes.

Regarding expectations, Yatche believes that there are different perspectives. “On the one hand, it is clear that the growth of the monetary base against the current CCL was aligning; since June 8 it went from $210 to $300. The issue is whether the BCRA will continue issuing as it has up to now to pay Temporary Advances, intervene in the debt market in pesos, pay the interest on the debt in dollars and there is no sign that this will stop.”

For the market analyst Daniel Vicien, “we must help people to cover themselves. The dollar was stopped, not only because of the change of minister, but also because of the destruction of the peso curve that caused all those who were doing carry they would turn to the dollar. It is very good that the BCRA and the Government begin to rebuild the peso curve and issue at interesting rates because that is what can truly calm the dollar.”

“If the market could be calmed with rates and it was seen that there are other opportunities, inflation would eat a little of the price of the dollar, but I never saw it go down. The big issue in the market is uncertainty. The investor -even the retailer- is going to look for certainties and goes to the dollar that historically is the good refuge of the Argentines. Batakis gave an interesting first message, but the facts are missing,” concludes Vicien.

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